Understanding the Evolving Threat Landscape for Churches!

What Church Leaders and Safety Teams Need to Know Now

By Dan @ Trinity Safety Training Group

Church safety is no longer just about having a few volunteers watching the doors. The reality today is that the threat landscape facing houses of worship is evolving—shaped by global events, shifting ideologies, and increasingly adaptive individuals.

For church leaders, this raises an important question: Are we truly prepared for the types of risks that exist today—not just the ones we’ve seen in the past?

A Changing Reality for Churches

Churches have always been places of openness, community, and trust. Unfortunately, those same qualities can also make them attractive targets.

Across the United States, incidents involving churches have increased in recent years—ranging from vandalism and disruption to acts of violence. While these events remain relatively rare, they are no longer isolated or predictable.

Today’s threat environment is not defined by one type of actor. Instead, it includes:

• Self-radicalized individuals influenced online

• Ideologically motivated extremists (both foreign and domestic)

• Organized groups seeking to disrupt services

• Opportunistic individuals targeting soft environments

This shift requires a broader, more informed approach to church safety.

How Threats Are Evolving

Threat actors are adapting—and so must we.

Vehicle-based attacks remain a concern, particularly during outdoor services and large gatherings. Something as simple as access control and physical barriers can make a significant difference.

At the same time, drones are becoming more common. While they can be used for surveillance or malicious purposes, they can also serve as tools for enhancing situational awareness when used responsibly.

There is also increased awareness around long-range threats and coordinated attacks. While still uncommon, these scenarios highlight the importance of visibility, communication, and preparation—especially in open environments.

Why Certain Times Require Extra Awareness

Risk levels are not constant throughout the year.

Periods surrounding major religious observances—such as Palm Sunday and Easter—naturally bring larger crowds and increased visibility. These same factors can also make churches more attractive targets.

Additionally, global events can influence local risk. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including those involving Iran and affiliated groups, have been linked to increased extremist messaging. This messaging can contribute to the rise of self-radicalized individuals acting independently within the United States.

There is also historical evidence showing slight increases in extremist-related activity during and following periods such as Ramadan, where propaganda and calls to action have been amplified.

The takeaway is simple: When visibility increases, awareness should increase as well.

What to Watch For: Early Warning Signs

Many incidents are not spontaneous—they are preceded by observable behaviors.

Two of the most important indicators to understand are:

1. Surveillance

This may look like:

• Individuals repeatedly observing entrances and exits

• Taking photos or videos of the property

• Watching security personnel or service patterns

• Loitering without a clear purpose

2. Elicitation

This involves gathering information through conversation, such as:

• Asking detailed questions about security procedures

• Inquiring about staffing or law enforcement presence

• Trying to identify vulnerabilities in a casual, friendly way

Training your team to recognize these behaviors can significantly improve your ability to prevent incidents before they occur.

Not Every Threat Looks the Same

It’s important to recognize that not all incidents begin with violence.

In some cases, churches have experienced organized disruptions during services—often tied to political or ideological causes. Incidents in places like Minnesota have demonstrated how quickly a peaceful service can be interrupted.

Even when non-violent, these situations can:

• Create confusion and anxiety

• Distract safety teams from more serious threats

• Escalate if not handled properly

Having a clear plan for managing disruptions is just as important as preparing for emergencies.

What Preparedness Really Looks Like

Effective church safety is not about turning your church into a fortress—it’s about being intentional.

That means:

• Evaluating your current security measures (cameras, lighting, communication)

• Training your safety team to recognize and respond to real-world scenarios

• Establishing clear protocols for both emergencies and disruptions

• Building relationships with local law enforcement and first responders

Preparation doesn’t have to be overwhelming—but it does need to be deliberate.

Moving Forward with Confidence

The goal of church safety is not fear—it’s stewardship.

By understanding the evolving threat landscape and taking practical, proactive steps, churches can create an environment where people feel both welcomed and protected.

Because at the end of the day, church safety isn’t just about security…It’s about caring for people well.

Trinity Safety Training Group

Equipping Churches. Strengthening Safety. Protecting What Matters Most.

Dan Perez

VP of Training and Risk Management

Trinitysafetygrp.com